This article was originally posted at 7:39 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, May 12. It was last updated with additional information at 10:47 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, May 12.

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COLBY, Kan. (DTN) -- By the time the caravan of road-weary crop scouts reassembled for dinner after Day 1 of the 2026 Wheat Quality Council Hard Winter Wheat Tour, the proverbial cat had already been let out of the bag, courtesy of USDA.

After scouting 187 wheat fields across the northern half of Kansas and five counties in Nebraska, the group estimated a weighted average yield of 38.3 bushels per acre (bpa), just 1.3 bpa more than forecast for Kansas in the agency's Crop Production report. Overall, USDA estimated hard red winter wheat production for 2026 at 515 million bushels, down 36% from a year ago -- causing the futures markets in Kansas City and Chicago to react with limit-up moves.

"I was a little surprised (by the market reaction) because I didn't think we were seeing anything that was a big secret today," said Justin Gilpin, Kansas Wheat CEO, to the group gathered at Frahm Farmland Inc. outside of Colby. "I felt like we all expected to see drought, stressed wheat, lower yields and the stuff that we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks. So, basically, I feel like we've confirmed today some of the concerns in the market."

The Day 1 weighted average yield of 38.3 bpa was the third lowest in the past 10 years and lowest since 2023 when extreme and exceptional drought gripped Kansas for two consecutive years and sent yields to near-historic lows. Last year, the average yield estimate on these same routes was 50.5 bpa.

RINSE & REPEAT REPORTS

While the routes traversed and the fields assessed were different on Day 1, much of the story the scouts shared was the same across the northern half of Kansas and extending into Nebraska. And it began with fall planting and establishment conditions that were uncharacteristically favorable.

"Honestly, a lot of time, it feels like it's a struggle to get a wheat crop established well in the fall because of dry conditions, and that was really not the case this year," said Jeanne Falk Jones, northwest area agronomist with K-State Research and Extension. "We had good moisture. We had everything that was looking good. Wheat came up, canopied well, put on the fall tillers that we want.

"We want three to four well-established tillers (per plant) to go into the winter, and we had that this year," she continued. "And I had one farmer who said, 'Well, it can only go downhill from here.'"

That farmer's statement proved prophetic. Wild temperature swings in January sent the crop on a rollercoaster, tempting it out of dormancy only to be plunged back into subfreezing conditions. Falk Jones added that at one weather station in northwest Kansas, the high temperature on Jan. 4 was 79 degrees Fahrenheit; two weeks later, it was minus 13 degrees. As spring approached and the crop awakened, multiple freeze events occurred both in mid-March and again in late April, taking their toll on the crop.

Meanwhile, the region received little to no precipitation.

"My one wheat plot cooperator in Cheyenne County, so as far northwest in Kansas as you can get, from Jan. 1 up until the end of April, he had 0.34 inches of rainfall on our wheat plot up there," Falk Jones said. "The last couple of days I've gotten lots of calls on wheat streak mosaic virus."

Overall, conditions and crop yields were more favorable toward the east, but as scouts moved west, conditions deteriorated. Drought was the biggest culprit, but diseases such as wheat streak mosaic and barley yellow dwarf were commonly mentioned in the crop scout reports. So, too, was freeze damage.

Lucas Haag, agronomist at K-State's Southwest Research Center at Tribune, added that crop management differences were readily apparent under the current drought conditions.

"We've got a lot of wheat that is continuous cropped, and we've got a lot of wheat that's after summer fallow," he explained. "The summer fallow wheat had been holding on and was a viable crop even up until the last week or so, whereas a lot of the continuous crop wheat basically could have been zeroed out a month, month and a half ago.

"So little differences in rotation and tillage history. When we're on that production fringe, all these little things and management show up quite significantly in terms of what that wheat looks like," he added.

On Wednesday, May 13, Day 2 of the hard winter wheat tour moves into southwest and south-central Kansas, with one route extending into select counties in Oklahoma. The day ends in Wichita.

DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkins is participating on this year's tour. Look for more daily updates and final yield estimates on www.dtnpf.com and on social platform X.

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN

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